Pandora Case study
Agentic commerce · payment infrastructure

Agentic commerce: when software becomes the buyer.

The shopper is starting to be a program. AI agents are already comparing, deciding, and — increasingly — paying, and the forecasts put hundreds of billions of dollars of purchasing behind them by 2030. But the rails they pay over are fragmenting into competing standards with no common interface. Whoever makes those standards settle through one clean surface wins the plumbing of agent commerce.

Market to 2030 Payment standards Settlement gap
The problem

Agents can decide to buy. They can't cleanly pay.

The web's checkout was built for a human with a browser, a card, and two hands. An autonomous agent has none of those. When an agent hits a paywall or a purchase, it has no native, standard way to authorize and settle a payment on its own — the entire flow assumes a person clicking a button and typing a card number into a form.

The industry's response, in barely a year, has been a burst of competing standards: Coinbase's x402, Google's Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), OpenAI and Stripe's Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), plus Visa Intelligent Commerce and Mastercard Agent Pay from the card networks — Visa and Mastercard launched theirs one day apart, on 29 and 30 April 2025.6 That's the good news and the problem at once. As one landscape analysis puts it plainly, "the market remains fragmented without interoperability standards," and merchants "may need to implement multiple protocols" to reach the agents that want to buy.14

Venture analysis of the stack is blunt about the root cause: there is "no agreed-upon standard for how a human assigns a role and scope to an agent," and authorization, fraud prevention, and liability allocation remain unsolved.13 Deciding to buy is close to solved. Paying — cleanly, across rails, at machine speed and machine cost — is not.

The market

The buyer is becoming software — at scale.

Three numbers frame it: how much purchasing will run through agents by 2030, how fast AI-driven shopping traffic is already growing, and the machine-native settlement volume proving it's real today.

$190–385B7
US agentic-commerce spend by 2030
Morgan Stanley's projected range — roughly 10–20% of US online retail. Bain brackets $300–500B; ICSC & McKinsey go to $1 trillion.89
+693%10
Growth in gen-AI retail traffic, YoY
Traffic to US retail sites from generative-AI sources during the holiday 2025 season — against a record $257.8B online.
~2 sec2
x402 settlement, at sub-cent fees
Hundreds of millions of transactions since May 2025, settling in ~2 seconds with fees "as low as a fraction of a cent."

The agents themselves are a market too: the global AI-agents software market is forecast to reach USD 50.31 billion by 2030 at a 45.8% CAGR.12 Every one of them is a potential buyer that needs a way to pay.

The landscape

Four answers to one question, shipped in a single year.

Every major AI lab and payment network now has an agent-payment play. They overlap, they compete, and — tellingly — they've already started leaning on each other. Here's who built what.

Coinbase · May 2025

x402 — stablecoin settlement rail

Reuses the dormant HTTP 402 Payment Required status code to embed USDC stablecoin payments directly into a web request — so an agent hitting a paywall attaches a signed payment header and continues, no account, no checkout page.1

It is the only agent-payment standard with live, high-volume settlement, and it's now governed by the x402 Foundation under the Linux Foundation.2

Google · Sept 2025

AP2 — the authorization layer

The Agent Payments Protocol represents each purchase as cryptographically signed Mandates (Intent, Cart, Delegated Authority), solving who authorized what. Announced with 60+ partners including Mastercard, Amex, PayPal, and Coinbase.3

Tellingly, it's payment-agnostic and supports stablecoins via an x402 extension — the standards are already trying to compose, not just compete.

OpenAI + Stripe · Sept 2025

ACP — the consumer checkout

The Agentic Commerce Protocol powers Instant Checkout in ChatGPT, using a Shared Payment Token so the agent pays without exposing the buyer's card credentials. Live with Etsy, expanding toward a million-plus Shopify merchants.4

It's the demand-side proof: agents are already buyers inside the world's most-used AI product.

Visa & Mastercard · Apr 2025

Card-network agent pay

Visa Intelligent Commerce (partners: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Stripe) and Mastercard Agent Pay (partners: Microsoft, IBM, Braintree) bind tokenized card credentials to a specific agent, merchant scope, and consent policy.6

They keep settlement on existing card rails — competing head-on with the stablecoin approach for the same agent checkouts.

The gap

Five standards. No common interface. A settlement layer up for grabs.

The forecasts assume agents can pay smoothly. The reality is a fragmented field where each rail speaks its own dialect, and a builder wanting to accept agent payments faces a choice between betting on one standard or integrating all of them.

  • Fragmentation is the default. Card-network tokens, signed mandates, shared payment tokens, and stablecoin headers don't interoperate out of the box — "merchants may need to implement multiple protocols."14
  • Settlement is contested. Value moves over purpose-built chains still in testnet and established networks alike — with stablecoins well-suited to machine-to-machine payments but no single accepted rail.13
  • The builder carries the cost. Anyone shipping agent-ready commerce today re-implements payments per standard, per chain — instead of writing to one interface that abstracts the rail underneath.
How we approach it

One SDK interface, with x402 as a first-class rail.

Express Protocol · a Pandora product

The SDK for agentic onchain commerce.

Express Protocol is our open-source SDK for agentic onchain commerce. Its design principle is four standards, one interface: mint, trade, and manage NFTs and real-world assets across ERC-721, ERC-1155, and ERC-404 — and settle agent payments through an x402 module built on Coinbase's HTTP 402 stablecoin standard — all from a single, consistent developer surface.

That directly addresses the gap above. Instead of asking a builder to re-implement payments for every emerging protocol, Express treats x402 as a first-class settlement rail inside the same interface used to handle assets: an agent hits a resource, x402 attaches a signed USDC payment, and it settles onchain — no checkout page, no card form, no seat at a human's browser. As the payment landscape keeps fragmenting, the value is in the abstraction: write to the interface, not the rail.

  • x402-native — agents pay and settle in USDC on their own, per request.
  • Four standards, one API — ERC-721, ERC-1155, ERC-404 and x402 behind a single interface.
  • Open-sourcepandora-express has been live on npm since February 2022.
  • Rail-agnostic by design — the interface abstracts the settlement layer as standards evolve.
Explore Express Protocol
Sources
  1. Introducing x402: a new standard for internet-native payments. Coinbase, May 2025. x402 reuses the HTTP "402 Payment Required" status code to embed stablecoin (USDC) payments into web requests, letting apps and AI agents pay per-request with no accounts. https://www.coinbase.com/developer-platform/discover/launches/x402
  2. What is Coinbase's x402 protocol? The Block. Since its inception in May 2025 the protocol has processed "hundreds of millions" of transactions; settlement averages ~2 seconds; blockchain-agnostic (Base, Solana, Ethereum) with fees "as low as a fraction of a cent." https://www.theblock.co/learn/391983/what-is-coinbases-x402-protocol
  3. Announcing Agent Payments Protocol (AP2). Google Cloud, 17 September 2025. AP2 launched with "more than 60 organizations"; represents purchases as signed Mandates; extends A2A and builds on the Model Context Protocol; supports stablecoins via the A2A x402 extension. https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-learning/announcing-agents-to-payments-ap2-protocol
  4. Stripe powers Instant Checkout in ChatGPT and releases the Agentic Commerce Protocol codeveloped with OpenAI. Stripe Newsroom, 29 September 2025. ACP is an open standard codeveloped by Stripe and OpenAI; introduces the Shared Payment Token so agents pay without exposing card credentials; live with Etsy, expanding to 1M+ Shopify merchants. https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-openai-instant-checkout
  5. Visa, Mastercard offer support for AI agents. Digital Commerce 360, 6 May 2025. Visa Intelligent Commerce launched 30 April 2025 (partners: OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic, Stripe, Samsung); Mastercard Agent Pay launched 29 April 2025 (partners: Microsoft, IBM, Braintree). https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2025/05/06/visa-mastercard-ai-agentic-commerce/
  6. Agentic Commerce: Market Impact Could Reach $385 Billion by 2030. Morgan Stanley Research, December 2025. Agentic shoppers could reach $190 billion to $385 billion in US e-commerce spending by 2030 (~10–20% of online retail); ~23% of Americans made a purchase using AI in the past month. https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/agentic-commerce-market-impact-outlook
  7. 2030 Forecast: How Agentic AI Will Reshape US Retail. Bain & Company, 17 December 2025. US agentic commerce could reach $300–500 billion by 2030 (~15–25% of e-commerce); AI and agents influenced $3 billion of US Black Friday sales. https://www.bain.com/insights/2030-forecast-how-agentic-ai-will-reshape-us-retail-snap-chart/
  8. US agentic commerce revenue forecast to reach $1 trillion by 2030. Retail Dive, reporting on ICSC & McKinsey & Company. Forecast US agentic commerce revenue of $1 trillion by 2030; 68% of consumers used at least one AI tool for shopping in the past three months. https://www.retaildive.com/news/agentic-commerce-us-one-trillion-2030/818936/
  9. Holiday Shopping Season Drove a Record $257.8 Billion Online. Adobe, January 2026. $257.8 billion spent online Nov 1–Dec 31 2025 (up 6.8% YoY); traffic to retail sites from generative-AI sources increased 693.4% YoY (Adobe notes the user base remains modest). https://news.adobe.com/news/2026/01/adobe-holiday-shopping-season
  10. AI Agents Market Size to Hit $50.31 Billion by 2030. Grand View Research (via PR Newswire). Global AI agents market projected at $50.31 billion by 2030, CAGR 45.8% (2025–2030). https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ai-agents-market-size-to-hit-50-31-billion-by-2030-at-cagr-45-8---grand-view-research-inc-302447060.html
  11. How Will My Agent Pay for Things? a16z (Andreessen Horowitz) Fintech, 29 May 2025. Current infrastructure "lacks standards for agent authorization, fraud prevention, and liability allocation"; "there is currently no agreed-upon standard for how a human assigns a role and scope to an agent"; stablecoins "could be well-suited for these machine-to-machine transactions." https://a16z.com/newsletter/agent-payments-stack/
  12. The agentic payments landscape. Chainstack. "The market remains fragmented without interoperability standards"; x402 is "the only protocol with meaningful volume" at ~500K weekly transactions; "without defined interoperability standards, merchants may need to implement multiple protocols." https://chainstack.com/the-agentic-payments-landscape/

Let your agents pay and settle on their own.

See how Express Protocol ships x402 as a first-class rail — four standards behind one SDK interface, so autonomous agents transact onchain without a checkout page.